The Corps of Engineers requested comments from all lake stake holders before they ran a test of 3100cfs from Thurmond in November - February, 2008. Since we are requesting adopting 3600cfs as a standard release anytime Lake Thurmond is 2' or more below fill level, we thought it would be enlightening to look at what everybody claimed might be wrong with 3100cfs.
Based on information supplied by the Corps of Engineers everyone should be fine with a release rate of 3600cfs. The manufacturing and power generating facilities along the Savannah River all indicated they might have to make some modifications to their water intake facilities at 3100cfs but that they had no problems with 3600cfs. This included International Paper, SRS, Georgia Power and Georgia Pacific. The city of Augusta public utilities indicated no problems with 3600 and as we now know they are set up to take water out of the river instead of the canal if they encounter a problem.
The only people that had a real quarrel with 3100cfs were the mill and others associated with the Augusta Canal and the environmental organizations such as the NOAA who were concerned that 3100 "MIGHT" endanger some fish species. But again even these organizations were not having a problem with 3600cfs.
So far as the Augusta Canal, there is a very simple solution to their concerns. The environmentalists insist on 1500cfs across the shoals. The shoals flow is whatever is left over after you subtract the flow to the canal from the releases from Lake Thurmond. If you simply control the flow through the shoals at 1500cfs whenever the releases from Thurmond are reduced to 3600cfs and let the rest go through the canal you satisfy the environmentatlists and the canal will be fine. Matter of fact it could be argued that the flow through Thurmond could even be reduced to 3100 and the canal would still be fine but we don't need to argue this point since we only want to go down to 3600cfs when the Lake level is down.
As for the Mill in the canal that generates electricity from canal flows, there is no way to justify destroying real estate values, businesses and recreation associated with Lake Thurmond for the meager savings the Mill realizes from generating power from the canal. But here again the argument is mute because at 3600cfs even the mill can do their thing.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Saturday, June 20, 2009
CORPS OF ENGINEERS GUILTY OF GROSS MISMANAGEMENT OF LAKE THURMOND
The Corps of Engineers is guilty of gross mismanagement of Lake Thurmond. Let me enumerate the evidence:
o First the Corps is a professional Engineering organization and thereby owes the public who are paying their salaries professional behavior. Because of their level of expertise they can be held accountable for making decisions that are consistent with good engineering practices. Just as Doctors can be held accountable for their procedures and decisions, the Corps is accountable for following failed procedures and making poor decisions. They have been offered a very basic solution to the lake problem but rather than evaluate the recommended solution using the engineering judgment they are capable of, they hide behind ridiculous excuses.
o Second the Corps has been fully informed of the disasters caused by their inappropriate control of Lake Thurmond Lake levels. They have been shown that the cost of the drastic drop in lake levels in 2006,7, and 8 totaled in excess of a billion dollars to upstream businesses and property values. Instead of recognizing the magnitude of the costs which would justify immediate corrective measures they pretend they need studies to determine the magnitude of the losses. As a professional engineering organization they should not be permitted to act ignorant of the huge losses they've caused. Furthermore the loss in confidence that has occured regarding the Lakes will require a huge publicity effort coupled with immediate correction of the drought control plan to turn these losses around. None of these can start because the Corps pleads ignorance and lack of capability. A competent engineering firm would not be so impotent.
o Third the losses experienced upstream are minor compared to the potential losses that would have occured if Lake Thurmond hit the level where the river would no longer have flows of 3600cfs or greater. If Lake Thurmond had dropped a few more feet as it would have if the drought had continued, releases could have dropped to as low as 500cfs which would be a disaster for everyone depending on the Savannah River. Ignoring this and refusing to correct the situation is criminal. Yet the Corps blindly continues with their outdated drought plan pretending that only the upstream interests are at risk and ignoring the potential for a future disaster downstream. Instead of informing downstream interests how close they came to disaster, the corps is childishly adjusting flows willy nilly because "someone" feels they need higher flows than 3600cfs.
When asked if they understand the argument Col. Edward Kertis responded with "we got it". He even claimed that he was tired of seeing the argument saying sarcastically that he heard it all 75 times we said it . When asked why he insists on ignoring our requests he throws up fictitious arguments about how he is worried about DO (dissolved oxygen) or side tracks the issue referring to past studies costing millions that he says need to be finished (that he knows aren't going to be done because of a lack of funding). He knows full well these studies can not do any better than the actual live test of 3600cfs run for over a year with no deleterious effects. Besides, based on the magnitude of the problems and the fact that people are hurting around the lakes from lost confidence in them staying up in level, the very least that the Corps should do is initiate temporary changes correcting the problem until further study can be done. Instead the Corps refuses to make the requested changes leaving the area unable to rid itself of a bad taste that is retarding a comeback and future growth while at the same time risking future disaster.
o First the Corps is a professional Engineering organization and thereby owes the public who are paying their salaries professional behavior. Because of their level of expertise they can be held accountable for making decisions that are consistent with good engineering practices. Just as Doctors can be held accountable for their procedures and decisions, the Corps is accountable for following failed procedures and making poor decisions. They have been offered a very basic solution to the lake problem but rather than evaluate the recommended solution using the engineering judgment they are capable of, they hide behind ridiculous excuses.
o Second the Corps has been fully informed of the disasters caused by their inappropriate control of Lake Thurmond Lake levels. They have been shown that the cost of the drastic drop in lake levels in 2006,7, and 8 totaled in excess of a billion dollars to upstream businesses and property values. Instead of recognizing the magnitude of the costs which would justify immediate corrective measures they pretend they need studies to determine the magnitude of the losses. As a professional engineering organization they should not be permitted to act ignorant of the huge losses they've caused. Furthermore the loss in confidence that has occured regarding the Lakes will require a huge publicity effort coupled with immediate correction of the drought control plan to turn these losses around. None of these can start because the Corps pleads ignorance and lack of capability. A competent engineering firm would not be so impotent.
o Third the losses experienced upstream are minor compared to the potential losses that would have occured if Lake Thurmond hit the level where the river would no longer have flows of 3600cfs or greater. If Lake Thurmond had dropped a few more feet as it would have if the drought had continued, releases could have dropped to as low as 500cfs which would be a disaster for everyone depending on the Savannah River. Ignoring this and refusing to correct the situation is criminal. Yet the Corps blindly continues with their outdated drought plan pretending that only the upstream interests are at risk and ignoring the potential for a future disaster downstream. Instead of informing downstream interests how close they came to disaster, the corps is childishly adjusting flows willy nilly because "someone" feels they need higher flows than 3600cfs.
When asked if they understand the argument Col. Edward Kertis responded with "we got it". He even claimed that he was tired of seeing the argument saying sarcastically that he heard it all 75 times we said it . When asked why he insists on ignoring our requests he throws up fictitious arguments about how he is worried about DO (dissolved oxygen) or side tracks the issue referring to past studies costing millions that he says need to be finished (that he knows aren't going to be done because of a lack of funding). He knows full well these studies can not do any better than the actual live test of 3600cfs run for over a year with no deleterious effects. Besides, based on the magnitude of the problems and the fact that people are hurting around the lakes from lost confidence in them staying up in level, the very least that the Corps should do is initiate temporary changes correcting the problem until further study can be done. Instead the Corps refuses to make the requested changes leaving the area unable to rid itself of a bad taste that is retarding a comeback and future growth while at the same time risking future disaster.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
MISUNDERSTANDINGS AND CONFUSION ARE SETTING IN ON DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN
The reason the Corps insists on ignoring the proposal for a new drought management plan from LHA et al is not clear. But now that the lakes are nearing full and the time since we were in a severe drought grows longer, misunderstandings and confusion are dimming the passions for correcting the problems with the existing drought plan for Lakes Thurmond and Hartwell. The Corps has raised concerns about dissolved oxygen and the DNR has raised concerns about the welfare of fish and wildlife. And well intentioned but misguided stakeholders of the Savannah River Basin are listening to these concerns and accepting them as reasons not to correct the problem.
What is getting lost in the shuffle is the fact that following the proposed new drought plan is the best solution for all these problems. Using 3600cfs as a release limit anytime Thurmond is 2ft below full avoids the near disasters experienced several times in the past with the current plan. Whether we are talking dissolved oxygen, the welfare of fish and wildlife, or some other well intentioned concern, keeping the lakes full over a full year's cycle is the best way to keep these problems at bay. Those arguing the other way fail to remember the fact that if you put out more water than comes in from rain over the year you drain the lakes and could end up with no way to control any of these concerns. They also are failing to give credit to the fact that in 2008 we ran a full 12 month demonstration of the acceptability of 3600cfs downstream. Furthermore if a problem is discovered with 3600cfs it needs to be solved by some manner that does not run the risk of draining the lakes dry. For example there are many ways to improve dissolved oxygen that do not involve increasing lake releases. One way is to decrease the amount of water going into the Augusta Canal so that you get higher flows across the shoals which aireate the river.
What is getting lost in the shuffle is the fact that following the proposed new drought plan is the best solution for all these problems. Using 3600cfs as a release limit anytime Thurmond is 2ft below full avoids the near disasters experienced several times in the past with the current plan. Whether we are talking dissolved oxygen, the welfare of fish and wildlife, or some other well intentioned concern, keeping the lakes full over a full year's cycle is the best way to keep these problems at bay. Those arguing the other way fail to remember the fact that if you put out more water than comes in from rain over the year you drain the lakes and could end up with no way to control any of these concerns. They also are failing to give credit to the fact that in 2008 we ran a full 12 month demonstration of the acceptability of 3600cfs downstream. Furthermore if a problem is discovered with 3600cfs it needs to be solved by some manner that does not run the risk of draining the lakes dry. For example there are many ways to improve dissolved oxygen that do not involve increasing lake releases. One way is to decrease the amount of water going into the Augusta Canal so that you get higher flows across the shoals which aireate the river.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
CORPS' REFUSAL TO CHANGE DROUGHT PLAN LEAVES SAVANNAH RIVER INTERESTS IN JEAOPORDY
To the casual observer Lake Thurmond is just about full, rains are plentiful, and drought problems are no more. But to the long term resident of the lakes the crisis has not passed. We've been here numerous times before. A new drought can happen and destroy the lakes beyond repair before you realize what is happening. Lake Thurmond drops 16ft and Lake Hartwell drops even further after 2 years of drought. We've come up with a new drought control plan which would correct this problem forever but for some unexplained reason the Corps is stubbornly refusing to adopt the recommended changes.
What is even more disturbing is that downstream interests don't have a clue to the impending doom they face. Downstream the picture is blurred because all they see is how much water is flowing down the river. And naturally they begin to demand higher water flows from the Corps during a drought. Instead of explaining the fact that such flows may cause the lakes to dry up the Corps does a political balancing act and increases water flows through the dam to quiet these demands. This further exascerbates the situation and puts the lake in still higher jeopardy of going dry. Such inept management of the lakes in the last drought put us within just a few months of levels that would have literally dried up the Savannah River. The river would have dropped to flows as small as 500cfs which would shut down industry along the Savannah, dry up drinking water supplies for downstream cities like Augusta, and destroy environmental interests.
The new drought plan was developed by upstream interests and prevents the lakes dropping more than 8ft from full regardless of how long the drought lasts. Furthermore the main benefit would be to downstream interests because it avoids the armageddon situation that would occur if the lakes actually go dry. The plan guarantees at least 3600cfs downstream throughout a drought which was demonstrated in the last drought as workable for all downstream interests.
The Corps either misunderstands the plan or is playing politics because they insist this plan would be good for upstream interests but not for downstream and try to pit upstream against downstream which is totally inappropriate. As already stated, downstream interests benefit more than anyone else using this approach. Continuing with the current plan puts downstream interests in jeopardy of losing the Savannah River because there is no water to supply it.
If you have input to downstream interests such as industry officials or city mayors, etc. please help us get the word out on this. We have asked the Corps repeatedly to convene a meeting of both upstream and downstream interests to discuss these options. But the Corps is refusing to do so.
What is even more disturbing is that downstream interests don't have a clue to the impending doom they face. Downstream the picture is blurred because all they see is how much water is flowing down the river. And naturally they begin to demand higher water flows from the Corps during a drought. Instead of explaining the fact that such flows may cause the lakes to dry up the Corps does a political balancing act and increases water flows through the dam to quiet these demands. This further exascerbates the situation and puts the lake in still higher jeopardy of going dry. Such inept management of the lakes in the last drought put us within just a few months of levels that would have literally dried up the Savannah River. The river would have dropped to flows as small as 500cfs which would shut down industry along the Savannah, dry up drinking water supplies for downstream cities like Augusta, and destroy environmental interests.
The new drought plan was developed by upstream interests and prevents the lakes dropping more than 8ft from full regardless of how long the drought lasts. Furthermore the main benefit would be to downstream interests because it avoids the armageddon situation that would occur if the lakes actually go dry. The plan guarantees at least 3600cfs downstream throughout a drought which was demonstrated in the last drought as workable for all downstream interests.
The Corps either misunderstands the plan or is playing politics because they insist this plan would be good for upstream interests but not for downstream and try to pit upstream against downstream which is totally inappropriate. As already stated, downstream interests benefit more than anyone else using this approach. Continuing with the current plan puts downstream interests in jeopardy of losing the Savannah River because there is no water to supply it.
If you have input to downstream interests such as industry officials or city mayors, etc. please help us get the word out on this. We have asked the Corps repeatedly to convene a meeting of both upstream and downstream interests to discuss these options. But the Corps is refusing to do so.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
COLONEL KERTIS NO LONGER OUR HERO
Colonel Edward Kertis established a new level of communication with lake concerns as the lakes almost went dry. This gave hope that finally we could reason with the Corps. Recent developments however show clearly he is no friend of lake interests; either downstream or upstream. For some reason he refuses to listen to reason. With the lakes about to refill the Corps is recklessly ignoring the lessons of the recent drought and they have increased the releases from Thurmond Dam to 3800cfs and plan another increase to 4000cfs shortly.
We learned in the recent drought that downstream interests are in extreme danger of losing the water flows they need for industry, water supplies, and environmental interests with the current drought plan. If the current rains stop and the drought returns, the flows the Corps is initiating could destroy the lakes in no time.
The Corps simply needs to let the lakes refill completely before initiating higher flows. Then putting in place a new drought plan based on the lessons of the previous drought, the lakes would remain full even in a drought. This plan would eliminate the possibility of a crisis downstream. The Colonel has been fully informed of all this. Why then is he ignoring the lessons of the past and jeopordizing everyone along the Savannah River with reckless operation of the dams.
We learned in the recent drought that downstream interests are in extreme danger of losing the water flows they need for industry, water supplies, and environmental interests with the current drought plan. If the current rains stop and the drought returns, the flows the Corps is initiating could destroy the lakes in no time.
The Corps simply needs to let the lakes refill completely before initiating higher flows. Then putting in place a new drought plan based on the lessons of the previous drought, the lakes would remain full even in a drought. This plan would eliminate the possibility of a crisis downstream. The Colonel has been fully informed of all this. Why then is he ignoring the lessons of the past and jeopordizing everyone along the Savannah River with reckless operation of the dams.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
CONTROLLING LAKE LEVELS MADE SIMPLE
The details of controlling lake levels to suit both downstream and upstream users of the lake can appear complicated. But it is really quite simple. To illustrate let me use the analogy of maintaining a bank account to take care of a charity. Assume that the charity needs $3,600/month to meet it's needs. Let's further assume that the only contributor to this charity is putting an average of $3,600/month into the account.
Given this scenario, if the charity takes out more than $3,600/mo the bank account will eventually go dry and the charity will no longer be able to meet it's needs. But if the charity takes out only $3,600/mo the bank account will remain solvent and the charity will be able to meet it's needs.
The downstream users along the Savannah River below the Thurmond Dam are like the charity. The upstream users are like the person contributing to the charity. They are contributing by allowing water to flow through the dam according to the Corps' drought plan. If the Corps limits the water through the dam to the average amount coming in each month it is to the benefit of the downstream users. It is not true that such controls are only for the benefit of the people around the lake. Such measures protect those downstream from a catastrophic failure with the lakes going dry and the Corps no longer being able to supply their needs.
It turns out that a flow rate of 3,600cfs through the dam equals the monthly average of rain coming into the lake during the recent drought which is the worst drought we have experienced since the dam was built. And we have fully demonstrated that a flow of 3,600cfs meets the needs of everyone downstream such as Augusta for water quality, industry along the river, and environmental concerns. Hence all we are asking is for the Corps to change their drought plan such that we no longer send more than 3600cfs downstream anytime the lakes drop by as much as 2ft. The reason for starting at 2ft below full is that month to month variations can allow the lake to drop 6ft so starting at 2ft below full limits the total drop to an acceptable 8ft.
The only other concerns I have heard from the Corps are lost power generation and the need for occasional high flows down the river to flush pockets of pollutants in a fashion similar to flooding from a rain. So far as power generation, we've talked with representatives of SEPA and they tell us that Lake Thurmond is part of a 10 lake grid and any loss in power production at Thurmond can be made up by increased production within this grid at lakes not suffering the same drought. Besides, purchase of power outside this grid if needed is not nearly as expensive as the costs that are encountered whenever the lakes drop more than 10 feet. So far as occasional high flows down the river, 3600cfs is an average and can include much higher flows from time to time as long as the overall monthly or weekly average is 3600. Such spikes in flow can even be matched with times when it rains to give extremely high flows in the river.
Other measures to minimize day to day fluctuations are desirable but the restriction of 3,600cfs anytime the lakes drop 2ft takes care of the major problems of past droughts. For example operators at the dam have detailed information showing when rains swell streams below the dam. This information could be used when the lake is down to increase water retention above the dam when 3,600cfs is no longer needed downstream. And testing lower flows such as 3100cfs could also help minimize level fluctuations during droughts. And rethinking water diversion rates for the Augusta Canal could also help at times of droughts. But all these complicate the issue and can be ignored until the drought plan is modified.
It is extremely important that the Corps discontinue the past drought plan which has failed numerous times and adopt this recommendation as soon as possible. Unless and until they do the lack of confidence in having suitable lake levels is destroying prospects for future business and real estate activities around the lakes, and recreational events such as national fishing tournaments. This lack of confidence is devastating the economics attributed to the lakes for cities like Lincolnton, McCormick, and Anderson.
Given this scenario, if the charity takes out more than $3,600/mo the bank account will eventually go dry and the charity will no longer be able to meet it's needs. But if the charity takes out only $3,600/mo the bank account will remain solvent and the charity will be able to meet it's needs.
The downstream users along the Savannah River below the Thurmond Dam are like the charity. The upstream users are like the person contributing to the charity. They are contributing by allowing water to flow through the dam according to the Corps' drought plan. If the Corps limits the water through the dam to the average amount coming in each month it is to the benefit of the downstream users. It is not true that such controls are only for the benefit of the people around the lake. Such measures protect those downstream from a catastrophic failure with the lakes going dry and the Corps no longer being able to supply their needs.
It turns out that a flow rate of 3,600cfs through the dam equals the monthly average of rain coming into the lake during the recent drought which is the worst drought we have experienced since the dam was built. And we have fully demonstrated that a flow of 3,600cfs meets the needs of everyone downstream such as Augusta for water quality, industry along the river, and environmental concerns. Hence all we are asking is for the Corps to change their drought plan such that we no longer send more than 3600cfs downstream anytime the lakes drop by as much as 2ft. The reason for starting at 2ft below full is that month to month variations can allow the lake to drop 6ft so starting at 2ft below full limits the total drop to an acceptable 8ft.
The only other concerns I have heard from the Corps are lost power generation and the need for occasional high flows down the river to flush pockets of pollutants in a fashion similar to flooding from a rain. So far as power generation, we've talked with representatives of SEPA and they tell us that Lake Thurmond is part of a 10 lake grid and any loss in power production at Thurmond can be made up by increased production within this grid at lakes not suffering the same drought. Besides, purchase of power outside this grid if needed is not nearly as expensive as the costs that are encountered whenever the lakes drop more than 10 feet. So far as occasional high flows down the river, 3600cfs is an average and can include much higher flows from time to time as long as the overall monthly or weekly average is 3600. Such spikes in flow can even be matched with times when it rains to give extremely high flows in the river.
Other measures to minimize day to day fluctuations are desirable but the restriction of 3,600cfs anytime the lakes drop 2ft takes care of the major problems of past droughts. For example operators at the dam have detailed information showing when rains swell streams below the dam. This information could be used when the lake is down to increase water retention above the dam when 3,600cfs is no longer needed downstream. And testing lower flows such as 3100cfs could also help minimize level fluctuations during droughts. And rethinking water diversion rates for the Augusta Canal could also help at times of droughts. But all these complicate the issue and can be ignored until the drought plan is modified.
It is extremely important that the Corps discontinue the past drought plan which has failed numerous times and adopt this recommendation as soon as possible. Unless and until they do the lack of confidence in having suitable lake levels is destroying prospects for future business and real estate activities around the lakes, and recreational events such as national fishing tournaments. This lack of confidence is devastating the economics attributed to the lakes for cities like Lincolnton, McCormick, and Anderson.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Lost Confidence in Lake Management Continues to Cause Huge Monetary Losses to Lake Interests
We have a major victory in understanding how to manage Lakes Thurmond and Hartwell to avoid the crises suffered in several recent droughts. Anyone following the situation now knows that simpy changing the drought plan so that discharges from Thurmond are reduced to 3600cfs anytime the lake drops 2ft until the lake is again full should eliminate any future crises during drought conditions. And further if we explore even lower flows such as 3100cfs to make recovery happen quicker we should be able to maintain the lakes at full or near full condition all the time. And simple logic points out that these measures benefit interests below the dam as much or more as they do lake interests.
However until we make this into a formal change in operation of the lakes the huge loss in confidence in Corps management of Lake Thurmond and Hartwell is destroying the economic recovery of the area around these lakes. Real Estate will not move in this area until people have confidence that their investments won't be trashed by the next drought. The many fishing tournaments and other recreational endeavors around the lake also suffer from people going elsewhere to make sure their needs are being met. And the businesses that feed off the fact that the area is attractive as a place to have a recreational home or for retirement aren't going to come back until they too have confidence that the past problems with lake levels aren't going to return.
In view of the fact that the losses in lake interests was in the billions of dollars and further considering the fact that we came close to not being able to sustain river flows adequate to meet downstream needs which would have devastated industry, water quality, and environmental concerns, we can not afford to ignore the need to change the drought plan. I initially thought the Corps recognized and agreed to these concerns and assumed they were going to make the needed changes. Now however the Corps has become totally silent on these issues. This leaves us with a major question as to their intentions and the area continues to suffer from lost confidence in these lakes due to recent drought experience. Further there have been clandestined suggestions that the Corps plans to return to 4200cfs the first of June.
Please. We can't afford to put off the needed change in drought plan. This area has suffered tremendously and the only way it can begin a comeback is for the Corps to formally correct the drought plan and publicize everywhere possible that these problems are history. If the Corps won't do this voluntarily we desperately need the assistance of our Congressmen.
However until we make this into a formal change in operation of the lakes the huge loss in confidence in Corps management of Lake Thurmond and Hartwell is destroying the economic recovery of the area around these lakes. Real Estate will not move in this area until people have confidence that their investments won't be trashed by the next drought. The many fishing tournaments and other recreational endeavors around the lake also suffer from people going elsewhere to make sure their needs are being met. And the businesses that feed off the fact that the area is attractive as a place to have a recreational home or for retirement aren't going to come back until they too have confidence that the past problems with lake levels aren't going to return.
In view of the fact that the losses in lake interests was in the billions of dollars and further considering the fact that we came close to not being able to sustain river flows adequate to meet downstream needs which would have devastated industry, water quality, and environmental concerns, we can not afford to ignore the need to change the drought plan. I initially thought the Corps recognized and agreed to these concerns and assumed they were going to make the needed changes. Now however the Corps has become totally silent on these issues. This leaves us with a major question as to their intentions and the area continues to suffer from lost confidence in these lakes due to recent drought experience. Further there have been clandestined suggestions that the Corps plans to return to 4200cfs the first of June.
Please. We can't afford to put off the needed change in drought plan. This area has suffered tremendously and the only way it can begin a comeback is for the Corps to formally correct the drought plan and publicize everywhere possible that these problems are history. If the Corps won't do this voluntarily we desperately need the assistance of our Congressmen.
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