I had the priviledge of being at meetings with the new Corps Commander on Monday evening at the LHA meeting in Anderson, Tuesday morning at a meeting for stakeholders interested in economics, and again Wednesday morning at a meeting for Marina owners. Colonel Hall brings a refreshing approach to managing the lakes and is making it obvious that he plans to be very proactive in saving as much lake water as possible when we are in drought conditions. He acknowledged repeatedly that everyone benefits when we keep the lakes as full as possible,
While we cannot expect everyone to see everything exactly the same, it was very encouraging to see Colonel Hall consider all stakeholder inputs. It is apparent he does not plan to make decisions based on closed door sessions with just a few special interest groups. The Corps is already using reduced flows from the dams below those called for in the old drought plan and they plan to factor in downstream flows so that we don't release any more water than is ablsolutely necessary (eg. when the river is swolen from rains downstream of the dam they plan to close off releases).
I am very optimistic about the future of our lakes.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Saturday, October 23, 2010
MORE THOUGHTS ON ECONOMICS OF LAKE LEVEL
In my last blog I pointed out numerous examples of how low lake levels have a huge dollar value especially when you look at real estate values. But even larger costs are incurred if you look at the impact on future growth. Analyzing the lake area as a stagnant entity misses the fact that future growth could swamp anything we can see now. For example look at areas like the Massanutten Ski Resort in Virginia. They struggled for years and years before finally attracting vacationers from the Washington DC area. Now the tourism there literally swamps anything imagined 10 years ago. Any impact study has to look at what happens to future growth to give a realistic picture of how lake level variations affect the economy.
An analogy to how low lake levels affect our current local economy would be to look at how an unplanned land fill would affect a real estate development during a poor economy. First the unplanned land fill would cause all the nearby property to drop in value. If the economy is bad at the same time the impact on local sales such as gas station volumes, grocery store sales, etc. would be very small. With a poor economy and decreased land values due to the land fill, the occupants of the community would be caught in a vice and be unable to leave the area. Hence gas sales, grocery sales, etc. would not be affected that much. But if you look at what is lost in terms of future growth of the community it is enormous because no one would want to buy or build in such an undesirable area.
A similar thing is happening right now for the local communities around Thurmond. The poor lake level control we've encountered in recent droughts are just as distasteful as an unplanned land fill would be to a real estate development. As in the example above measurements of current impact will not be major because everyone is hanging on for dear life. If we have another poor level performance we may finally see major impacts because many businesses around the lake can not endure another slow down. But neither of these can compare to the impact on future development. What hotel would seriously consider coming here. And numerous developments that would have a major impact on the area will have a hard time getting started once the economy improves because of the distastfullness of poor level control.
An analogy to how low lake levels affect our current local economy would be to look at how an unplanned land fill would affect a real estate development during a poor economy. First the unplanned land fill would cause all the nearby property to drop in value. If the economy is bad at the same time the impact on local sales such as gas station volumes, grocery store sales, etc. would be very small. With a poor economy and decreased land values due to the land fill, the occupants of the community would be caught in a vice and be unable to leave the area. Hence gas sales, grocery sales, etc. would not be affected that much. But if you look at what is lost in terms of future growth of the community it is enormous because no one would want to buy or build in such an undesirable area.
A similar thing is happening right now for the local communities around Thurmond. The poor lake level control we've encountered in recent droughts are just as distasteful as an unplanned land fill would be to a real estate development. As in the example above measurements of current impact will not be major because everyone is hanging on for dear life. If we have another poor level performance we may finally see major impacts because many businesses around the lake can not endure another slow down. But neither of these can compare to the impact on future development. What hotel would seriously consider coming here. And numerous developments that would have a major impact on the area will have a hard time getting started once the economy improves because of the distastfullness of poor level control.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Anderson Independant Mail Article Alarming
The Anderson Independant Mail Newspaper in Anderson came out with an article on the 13th that basically said droughts have small affect on economies. No one in their right mind could look at the thousands of homes lining Hartwell and Thurmond and think the price small. If the author were to talk to the dock builders that went out of business and marinas that lost BIG and the fishing enthusiasts that had to watch tournaments turned away and the weekenders/vacationers who no longer had use of the lake he would find a lot of people do not agree with any such conclusion. I guess what the people studying the problem are really saying is it did not affect their job or their economy. Sorry we couldn't arrange for them to fully participate in the losses.
I have heard that Duke Power is about to complete a similar study on Lake Thurmond. If so I would question the validity of their study without seeing it because I find they have not even talked with Marina owners. I hope the people responsible for this study realize that their actions will have a direct affect on jobs, tourism, and local economies around the Lakes. As with the findings that are rumored for the Lake Hartwell study I personally have to question anyone who claims that droughts have only a small effect economically. Just looking at real estate, anyone who understands lake shore real estate would agree droughts like the one of 2008 decrease lot values by at least $100,000. There are over 4,000 such lots around Thurmond which by itself represents a loss of almost half a billion dollars. Looking past that and saying the loses are small is down right irresponsible and not appreciated by Lake Stakeholders who personally are suffering such losses.
I have heard that Duke Power is about to complete a similar study on Lake Thurmond. If so I would question the validity of their study without seeing it because I find they have not even talked with Marina owners. I hope the people responsible for this study realize that their actions will have a direct affect on jobs, tourism, and local economies around the Lakes. As with the findings that are rumored for the Lake Hartwell study I personally have to question anyone who claims that droughts have only a small effect economically. Just looking at real estate, anyone who understands lake shore real estate would agree droughts like the one of 2008 decrease lot values by at least $100,000. There are over 4,000 such lots around Thurmond which by itself represents a loss of almost half a billion dollars. Looking past that and saying the loses are small is down right irresponsible and not appreciated by Lake Stakeholders who personally are suffering such losses.
Monday, September 6, 2010
MIXED SIGNALS ON CORPS PLANS FOR LAKE THURMOND
We have entered into a serious drought situation and Lake Thurmond level is dropping like a rock. The Corps is sending mixed signals on how they plan to manage Lake Thurmond release rates. At first it appeared that they were modifying the old drought plan by going to 3800 cfs releases from Lake Thurmond. Now it looks like the Corps has reverted back to the old drought plan because they have increased releases from Lake Thurmond to 4200 cfs.
There are problems with the old drought plan both upstream and downstream of Thurmond Dam. Upstream it will cause serious economic losses in just a few months time. For example during the last drought the marinas located near McCormick, SC and Lincolnton, GA were suffering monetary losses in excess of 30% and real estate values around the Savannah River Basin Lakes were virtually destroyed. Downstream it could destroy the ability to control river flows in a few years time. At the end of the last drought we were within 2' of losing control over river flows.
All stakeholders around the lakes are on the verge of significant economic losses. You may want to let the Corps know your concerns now before lake levels get totally out of hand the way they have in the past several droughts.
There are problems with the old drought plan both upstream and downstream of Thurmond Dam. Upstream it will cause serious economic losses in just a few months time. For example during the last drought the marinas located near McCormick, SC and Lincolnton, GA were suffering monetary losses in excess of 30% and real estate values around the Savannah River Basin Lakes were virtually destroyed. Downstream it could destroy the ability to control river flows in a few years time. At the end of the last drought we were within 2' of losing control over river flows.
All stakeholders around the lakes are on the verge of significant economic losses. You may want to let the Corps know your concerns now before lake levels get totally out of hand the way they have in the past several droughts.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
THE CORPS IS DOING IT AGAIN
The Corps of Engineers shows again that they have no intention of maintaining lake levels and release rates at values that satisfy all stake holders in the Savannah River Basin. We have demonstrated repeatedly that release rates of 3600 cfs from Lake Thurmond is adequate for downstream stakeholders especially when it is for a short term. We have also demonstrated that the economics of uspstream stakeholders can be protected by decreasing releases from Lake Thurmond to 3600 cfs anytime the lake is 2' below full pool. Regardless the Corps is using releases of about twice that level with Lake Hartwell 2' below full pool and Lake Thurmond approaching 3' below full pool.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Summation of What We've Learned About Controlling Lake Levels During a Drought
I thought it would be beneficial to put what we've learned in one place so anyone trying to catch up to date will have one site where they can get the facts quickly. Our findings are based on Corps of Engineers data during one of the worst droughts of record and the comments solicited by the Corps from all lake and downstream stakeholders as the drought progressed. This information was gathered during the drought of 2008 with releases from Thurmond held to 3,600 cfs for the full 12 months of that year.
First and most important the data show that the average rainfall over a 12month period of time during the droughts of worst record is 3,600cfs. Because of this release rates from Thurmond of 3600cfs will keep the lake in balance over the course of a year. Lake Thurmond will drop in level during the dry months but return to full pool during the periods of higher rainfall. If we had started the year with the lake at 328ft the minimum level would have been in excess of 322ft and the economic disaster to lake interests would have been avoided. Not only would this benefit lake interest economics but avoiding drastic drops in lake level protects against losing predictable river flows. Based on this we have requested that the Corps modify the drought plan as follows:
o To minimize the overall drop in lake level during times of drought initiate a release rate of 3600cfs anytime the lake drops below 328'.
o Maintain the 3600cfs flow rate until the lake returns to full pool (330').
o During the cooler weather months of October through March, we recommend a release rate of 3100cfs to further minimize level fluctuations.
Second we learned that there are additional knobs that can be turned during a drought to further minimize level fluctuations.
o Flow and stream level information is available to the dam operators. If stream flows to the river were used as the criteria on what releases are needed from the dam there were many times in 2008 when dam releases could have been throttled below 3600cfs without any harm downstream.
o Environmental interests currently require a minimum flow across the rapids at Augusta and this flow is the difference between what is released from the dam and what flows through the Augusta Canal. Hence lower flows through the Augusta Canal would permit lower release rates at the dam anytime the rapids are the pinch point in flow needed.
If these findings would be incorporated into the Corps' drought management plan we could eliminate future economic disasters like those that have occured repeatedly since 1985 during Savannah River Basin droughts. The Corps states that they are not responsible for economics but this is in direct contradiction to 1993 court decisions arising from major droughts along the Missouri River. Furthermore the recommended changes to the drought plan offer as much benefit to downstream interests as they do to lake interests. At one point in the drought of 2008 we almost lost the ability to manage release rates. We came close to reaching levels where the drought plan calls for releases equal to what is coming in from rain. Such release rates could be as low as 500cfs which would be very destructive downstream of Thurmond Dam.
Further improvements beyond those from our recommendations above could come from developing models of the Savannah River Basin which predict lake levels, river flows, etc. from all the variables mother nature can throw at us. I understand that such a model may already exist. One study that would be illuminating would be to look at what happens if you keep Lake Hartwell full at times of drought. At first glance this looks bad because Thurmond levels would drop faster due to less input. But it may well be that more rapid refilling of Thurmond when rains occur could offset this negative.
What is desperately needed is input to the Corps' on drought management from lake interests. Comments such as "we can't factor in economics" should no longer be tolerated. At present the Corps has no legitimate representation of lake interests in their decision making meetings. They quote what the NOAA, DNR, DHEC etc. want but they do not incorporate inputs from lake interests such as Save Our Lakes Now which is a 501c3 non profit organization representing Lake Thurmond interests or the Lake Hartwell Association which represents Lake Hartwell interests. What would also be excellent is to incorporate the model of the Savannah Basin assuming it exists into decision making. Excuses such as we need more study are out of line. Throwing money at a problem that can already be solved is not what we need.
First and most important the data show that the average rainfall over a 12month period of time during the droughts of worst record is 3,600cfs. Because of this release rates from Thurmond of 3600cfs will keep the lake in balance over the course of a year. Lake Thurmond will drop in level during the dry months but return to full pool during the periods of higher rainfall. If we had started the year with the lake at 328ft the minimum level would have been in excess of 322ft and the economic disaster to lake interests would have been avoided. Not only would this benefit lake interest economics but avoiding drastic drops in lake level protects against losing predictable river flows. Based on this we have requested that the Corps modify the drought plan as follows:
o To minimize the overall drop in lake level during times of drought initiate a release rate of 3600cfs anytime the lake drops below 328'.
o Maintain the 3600cfs flow rate until the lake returns to full pool (330').
o During the cooler weather months of October through March, we recommend a release rate of 3100cfs to further minimize level fluctuations.
Second we learned that there are additional knobs that can be turned during a drought to further minimize level fluctuations.
o Flow and stream level information is available to the dam operators. If stream flows to the river were used as the criteria on what releases are needed from the dam there were many times in 2008 when dam releases could have been throttled below 3600cfs without any harm downstream.
o Environmental interests currently require a minimum flow across the rapids at Augusta and this flow is the difference between what is released from the dam and what flows through the Augusta Canal. Hence lower flows through the Augusta Canal would permit lower release rates at the dam anytime the rapids are the pinch point in flow needed.
If these findings would be incorporated into the Corps' drought management plan we could eliminate future economic disasters like those that have occured repeatedly since 1985 during Savannah River Basin droughts. The Corps states that they are not responsible for economics but this is in direct contradiction to 1993 court decisions arising from major droughts along the Missouri River. Furthermore the recommended changes to the drought plan offer as much benefit to downstream interests as they do to lake interests. At one point in the drought of 2008 we almost lost the ability to manage release rates. We came close to reaching levels where the drought plan calls for releases equal to what is coming in from rain. Such release rates could be as low as 500cfs which would be very destructive downstream of Thurmond Dam.
Further improvements beyond those from our recommendations above could come from developing models of the Savannah River Basin which predict lake levels, river flows, etc. from all the variables mother nature can throw at us. I understand that such a model may already exist. One study that would be illuminating would be to look at what happens if you keep Lake Hartwell full at times of drought. At first glance this looks bad because Thurmond levels would drop faster due to less input. But it may well be that more rapid refilling of Thurmond when rains occur could offset this negative.
What is desperately needed is input to the Corps' on drought management from lake interests. Comments such as "we can't factor in economics" should no longer be tolerated. At present the Corps has no legitimate representation of lake interests in their decision making meetings. They quote what the NOAA, DNR, DHEC etc. want but they do not incorporate inputs from lake interests such as Save Our Lakes Now which is a 501c3 non profit organization representing Lake Thurmond interests or the Lake Hartwell Association which represents Lake Hartwell interests. What would also be excellent is to incorporate the model of the Savannah Basin assuming it exists into decision making. Excuses such as we need more study are out of line. Throwing money at a problem that can already be solved is not what we need.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
UPCOMING ELECTIONS PRESENT AN EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY TO GET LAKE PROBLEMS CORRECTED
From now until November we have an excellent opportunity to find out which politicians will help in our plight with gaining control over our lakes. All of us who suffered the consequences of the Corps' mismanagement of the Savannah River Basin should insist that each candidate express their views on this subject.
As the author of this blog I offer this blog site as a way to communicate their views on the lakes to the public. And I feel sure the various lake organizations such as Save Our Lakes Now and the Lake Hartwell Association would be happy to offer their sources of communication to political candidates who would like to make their views known.
In my opinion we need to vote out of office all incumbents who have not helped us in the past. We also need to make every effort to find and promote candidates who share our views. And most importantly we need to look for candidates who will not be afraid to enter the fray and help us get control over what the Corps does with our lakes.
As the author of this blog I offer this blog site as a way to communicate their views on the lakes to the public. And I feel sure the various lake organizations such as Save Our Lakes Now and the Lake Hartwell Association would be happy to offer their sources of communication to political candidates who would like to make their views known.
In my opinion we need to vote out of office all incumbents who have not helped us in the past. We also need to make every effort to find and promote candidates who share our views. And most importantly we need to look for candidates who will not be afraid to enter the fray and help us get control over what the Corps does with our lakes.
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