HANDOUT PREPARED FOR SRBAC 12/8 MTG IN BEAUFORT

This handout was prepared for and discussed at the 12/8 meeting of the Savannah River Basin Council in Beaufort, sc on 12/8. It summarizes our feelings on the flawed economic impact study recently done by Clemson University. I think you will find it to be a concise answer to their findings which we feel drew an incorrect conclusion about the impact of droughts on the economy of the lakes of the Savannah River Basin which include Lake Thurmond.

CONCERNS ABOUT CLEMSON ECONOMIC STUDY


1. No one who experienced the devastation to docks and shorelines in 2008 will agree that the economic impact was minor. Neither will those who depend on the lakes for their work such as marina owners, dock builders, lake side developers, etc.
2. It is not surprising that people who live in the 6 county area because of their commute to work or proximity to family suffered no impact from the drought. This is like saying no one in Columbia or Rock Hill were impacted by what happened on Lake Hartwell. The only impact is going to be on people who are in the area because of the lake. So far as I can tell there was no attempt to measure the size of this group or to look at the impact incurred by them. In my opinion the study should have been aimed at lake stakeholders and the impact on them rather than the general population.
3. The study assumes a rapid return to normal lake levels with a corresponding return to normal lake property values, etc. The major economic impact is not short term. Instead the major economic impact is loss of confidence in lake level control long term. People who move to the area because they are attracted to the lakes will stop coming, property values will suffer permanent damage on a large scale, and developments depending on the attraction of the lakes will cease. From a personal perspective I know of huge developments that are now abandoned or put on hold around Lake Thurmond because of lost confidence in lake level control.

If the purpose of the study was to determine how hardy the economy of 6 SC counties was during 2006-8 it was a success. But if the study was to look at the economic impact of low lake levels it failed to measure the variables necessary to draw a conclusion. In order to study the economic impact of low lake levels one needs to first identify the community affected by lake levels, second the impact of short term low lake levels on that community and third and most important the long term impact of low lake levels on that community. I can assure you from just looking at the magnitude of impact from lost real estate values the economic impact is not small.